Wednesday presents us with another hefty slate of MLB games that stretches from early afternoon until well after the sun goes down. As always, this presents us with a plethora of betting opportunities.
The difference in baseball compared to other sports is how the spreads (run lines) are measured. Unlike in other sports where the size of a spread can vary, baseball’s spreads are defaulted to 1.5 runs, with the odds being juiced one way or another. This makes targeting games before all of the odds are up a bit easier, especially for the sake of these articles.
Below are two of my favorite bets for Wednesday.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
The pick: Brewers ML (good until -200)
This is a juiced number, but that’s how confident bettors should be when Brandon Woodruff toes the rubber. He’s been an ace in every facet this season for the Crew, posting career-best metrics in HR/9 (0.43), strikeout rate (32.5%), and opponent batting average (.146).
The Cardinals are coming off of a three-game sweep of the Rockies, but this is bound to be their toughest test in at least a week. As long as the Brewers' bats can provide some run support for Woodruff, he should have little issues quieting the NL Central rival on offense.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
The pick: Angels ML (good until -130)
Speaking of elite pitching, Andrew Heaney is another pitcher who has been mowing the opposition down like an overgrown front lawn. His 36.4% strikeout rate is over 10% higher than his 2020 rate and a career-best mark, topping his previous best of 28.9% from 2019. While his ERA (4.11) doesn’t scream stud, his underlying metrics indicate progression on the horizon. His SIERA (skill-interacted ERA, eliminates factors outside of the pitcher’s control) of 2.79 is almost 1.5 points lower than his ERA, while his opponent batting average of .200 shows that he’s getting guys out.
The Astros are not the powerhouse that they once were and have dropped five of their last eight games, making this a matchup to get on top of as soon as you can before the line moves.