Bet the over.
Air Force and New Mexico will meet Saturday in a series that has been the most high-scoring the Falcons have been involved with over the past five seasons, and there’s no reason to think this one will be any different.
Since 2013, the average score of these games has been Lobos 44.8, Falcons 37. The total of 409 scored in those games dwarfs that of the second-highest series in that span, Air Force and CSU (351 points).
When receiver Andrew Smith visited Air Force’s football offices on Sunday, he found an offensive assistant reviewing New Mexico film.
“He said, ‘Yeah, it’s definitely going to be a week for us to put up a lot of points,’” Smith said.
The problem for Air Force is that New Mexico has put up even more points, as it has scored 45, 31, 47, 45 and 56 points in winning four of those five meetings. The Falcons enter this week at 13.5-point favorites.
“We’ve done some things against Air Force because they’re so well-coached,” Lobos coach Bob Davie said. “We’ve false-keyed them. They’ve done the same thing to us with their offense. They’re keyed in so quickly and they play so aggressively.”
Air Force’s offense is again showing the ability to put up big points. They’ve scored at least 25 points against everyone but San Diego State and Army this season — games that typically aren’t high scoring because of the limited possessions that result from the clock-chewing ground games — and at home the Falcons have averaged 34 points.
New Mexico hasn’t been as explosive, averaging just 17 points over its past four contests. But the Lobos have been a matchup nightmare for the Falcons, and they’ve shown their capabilities in scoring 42 points in a victory at New Mexico State and 50 in defeating UNLV.
“I would expect it to be a game similar in style to Boise State,” said Air Force cornerback Dailen Sutton said, comparing this to a game that saw 56 points scored in the first half two weeks ago.
The over-under on Air Force and New Mexico is set at 56 points.
Bet the over.