Frisch Boebert

Adam Frisch, left, and U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert

An internal poll released Wednesday by the Democrat hoping to deny U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert a second term shows her challenger, Adam Frisch, trailing the Republican incumbent by 7 percentage points in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District.

The poll of likely voters, conducted for Frisch's campaign by Colorado-based Democratic firm Keating Research, found Boebert leading Frisch, 49% to 42%, with 9% undecided.

While that margin is outside the poll's margin for error and the range that is typically considered close, Frisch said the survey's results — including his lead among unaffiliated voters and Boebert's mixed favorability scores — suggest he's well-positioned in the GOP-leaning district.

The poll of 550 likely voters was conducted July 21-25 using live telephone interviews. Its margin for error is plus or minus 4.2%. According to the poll's cross-tabs, the poll sample consisted of 36% Republicans, 38% unaffiliated voters and 26% Democrats. Hispanic voters accounted for 14% of respondents.

Boebert, a longtime Second Amendment activist and former owner of a gun-themed restaurant in Rifle, rocketed to prominence two years ago when she unseated five-term U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton in the 2020 GOP primary and has stayed in the spotlight since. She defeated Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush in 2020 by about 6 percentage points.

Covering most of the Western Slope and southern Colorado, including Pueblo County and the San Luis Valley, the 3rd CD is considered more favorable to Republicans after last year's redistricting ahead of this year's election, with a roughly 9-point lean toward GOP candidates, according to an analysis by the commission that drew congressional boundaries.

The district hasn't landed on either national party's list of battleground seats and is ranked as solidly Republican by most election forecasters.

But that doesn't dissuade Frisch, a wealthy businessman and former member of Aspen City Council, from cheering the results of his internal poll.

“These numbers reflect what we’ve been hearing from voters all across the district: that they’re ready to stop Boebert’s circus and elect a representative that will work hard to address the needs of the district on issues like inflation, jobs, water, energy independence and more,” Frisch said.

Boebert's campaign dismissed word of the poll's results.

"Congresswoman Boebert will win this election decisively in November, because she is the only candidate on the ballot committed to firing Nancy Pelosi and getting our country back on track," a campaign spokesperson wrote in an email to Colorado Politics.

Among the new poll's findings, 48% of district voters say it's better to elect someone else, while 45% say Boebert should be reelected. Unaffiliated voters, the largest share of the district's voters, say it's time for new representation in Congress by a 21-point margin, 57% to 36%.

Boebert trails Frisch by 8 points among unaffiliated voters, 49% to 41%, and by 21 points among unaffiliated women, 54% to 33%. Among voters of all affiliations, Boebert wins men 54% to 35% but loses women, 48% to 45%.  

Boebert, who easily fended off a primary challenge from former state Sen. Don Coram, R-Montrose, is thought of favorably by 45% of the poll's respondents and unfavorably by 44%. Among Republicans, 71% consider her favorably and 18% hold an unfavorable view, with 10% volunteering that they're unfamiliar with her.

Frisch is viewed favorably by 23% of respondents and unfavorably by 12%, with 65% saying they are unfamiliar with him.

Frisch concludes that he's got room to grow support in the months ahead, including by attracting what he calls "rational Republicans" who supported Coram in the June primary.

"I’m more confident than ever that Boebert is weak and going to lose, and that the voters of CO3 are ready for real leadership," Frisch said in a statement.

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