Every NFL Thursday, I will attempt, using the tools and stats from FTNBets.com, to slay the sportsbooks, scribbling my favorite side, total and prop picks for the week’s upcoming NFL slate. Some will win. Many will lose. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. Here’s where I’m stacking greenbacks in Week 6:
Game 1: Carolina -2.5 (vs. Chi) — The Bears are the worst 4-1 team possibly in NFL history. And that brutally honest statement is coming from a die-hard Chicago sports fan. The offensive line has made strides from last year’s translucent product and, defensively, the Bears showcase considerable ferocity versus the pass, but this is a team fortunate to be in its current position. The Fighting Sir Purrs will continue to bombard the competition. Infrequent success is likely as Kyle Fuller and Co. have yielded just 6.4 pass yards per attempt. Still, Nick Foles, No. 31 in adjusted completion percentage, is a scattershot of suck. Bring back Jay Cutler. David Montgomery should gash a Panthers front giving up 5.12 yards per carry to RBs. However, Chicago’s own inadequacies plugging gaps will lead to multiple Mike Davis chunk gains. Expect that to be the difference.
Game 2: Minnesota/Atlanta OVER 54.5 — Points, similar to the number of Chick-Fil-A locations in the greater Atlanta metro area, will be aplenty. Both secondaries are putrid (Atlanta 8.5 YPA allowed; Minnesota 8.3). Both pass games, when firing on all cylinders, can overwork scoreboard operators. Both ground attacks are formidable — yes, even with Alexander Mattison and not Dalvin Cook (groin) toting the load for the Vikes. A combined 6-4 hitting overs, I fully anticipate ample chain moving.
Game 3: Miami -8 (vs. NYJ) — Miami morphed into a school of flesh-insatiable orcas last week in San Francisco. Against a 49ers defense trotting out promoted backups at DB, Ryan Fitzpatrick sliced the competition with his usual infectious joyful exuberance. Knocking at the door of a .500 record, expect “The Lorax” to speak for the trees and bring another opponent to its knees. The Puddle Jumpers rank inside the bottom 10 in pass yards per attempt (8.3) and pass yards per game (274) allowed to QBs. Equally disastrous containing the run (4.6 YPC allowed to RBs), they’re leakier than an octogenarian. New York, 0-5 ATS, is ripe for the picking. Fitzmagic’s sleight of hand combined with Myles Gaskin’s rugged running will be more than enough to cover the -8. It’s stunning Adam Gase is employed.