Week 6 in the NFL is upon us, and with no Thursday game, the first action will be Sunday. With nine games in the early slate, there is plenty of betting action to be had and many edges to be found. How do we find those edges? With advanced statistics and research.
Here are five stats you must know before betting on Week 6 in the NFL.
1. All five Arizona games have gone “under” in 2020
No Week 6 game has a higher total than the Cardinals and Cowboys (55). Given that all five of the Cardinals’ games have gone under, this is one to look at. Monday night, the Cardinals will face Dallas without Dak Prescott, as Andy Dalton will be at quarterback. After Prescott got hurt, the Cowboys turned to the running game in a close matchup, as Dalton threw just 11 passes while the Cowboys carried the ball a total of 29 times (including a drive in the fourth quarter with six rushing attempts). Betting the over in this game will likely be popular, but is it the right call?
2. Chicago is 31st in explosive run rate allowed
What is explosive run rate allowed? An explosive run is one that accrues 10 or more yards on the ground. This means only one team has allowed more 10-yard runs on a per-play basis than the Bears. This makes the Panthers’ rushing attack quite attractive in Week 6 from a betting perspective, as Mike Davis will likely be the lead ball-carrier again. Keep an eye on his rushing props, as he is set for another large workload in a matchup that could lead to explosive plays. Keep in mind, Davis is sixth in the NFL in breakaway runs himself, adding to the allure.
3. Carson Wentz is completing 33.9% of his passes under pressure
Under pressure, Wentz has really struggled in 2020. Completing just over a third of his passes when pressured, that does not bode well in any matchup where an opposing team can get to the quarterback. In Week 6, Wentz and the Eagles face the Ravens, who are second in blitz rate and are ranked in the top six in pressure rate. With the Eagles’ struggles on the offensive line, the Ravens’ ability to get pressure, and Wentz’ struggles under pressure, the stars are aligning for some Ravens interception props, Wentz over on interceptions thrown, and the under on Eagles’ team total betting markets.
4. Jacksonville has the highest passing rate in the NFL in the red zone
Red-zone stats are an undervalued bunch, as team tendencies in the red zone can turn into profitable prop bets and other wagers. The Jaguars play the Lions in Week 6, who have allowed eight passing touchdowns already in the red zone in 2020. When the Jaguars reach the red zone, expect them to pass the football which adds value to Gardner Minshew props, Jaguars’ wide receiver props, and the Jaguars’ team total given the Lions’ passing defense in the red zone.
5. Derrick Henry is averaging just 1.8 yards after contact, 31st in the NFL
Despite Henry’s monster stiff arm against Josh Norman in Week 5, he has struggled in 2020 to a paltry average of 1.8 yards after contact. While Henry has rushed for 376 yards in four games, he is only averaging 3.7 per attempt. One thing to note is that Henry’s total last week may bring his rushing prop down for this week, where he faces a Texans team that has struggled against the run. Houston has allowed 166, 230, 169 and 162 yards on the ground in their four losses, and Tennessee is favored in Week 6. Keep an eye on Henry’s rushing props this week.